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The Sep 2026 Fed hike signals the start of a renewed US tightening cycle. Our macroeconomic team now projects two additional 25bp hikes, in Dec 2026 and 1Q27, with the Fed on hold thereafter through the remainder of 2027.

We moved Equities from Overweight to Neutral post the Fed hike in Sep. This is a tactically cautious decision, not a strategic retreat. We stay Neutral on Fixed Income and prefer an average duration of 4-5 years. We remain Neutral on Alternatives, holding off further allocation to private equity and credit until risk-reward improves. We upgrade Money Market to Overweight, maintaining flexibility to gradually deploy dry powder as market volatility presents opportunities.

We downgrade US to Neutral as a prolonged Fed tightening cycle and higher bond yields are creating a less supportive backdrop. We remain Neutral in Europe, seeing selective opportunities in areas like AI infrastructure and utilities amid modest growth. We remain Neutral on Japan as elevated valuations warrant a more selective approach, although structural reform momentum continues to support the medium-term investment case. We downgrade EM Asia to Neutral, as AI hardware exposure and China’s uneven recovery cloud near-term outlook.

We stay Overweight on Developed Markets (DM) Investment Grade (IG) as attractive all-in yields support portfolio income, although Fed tightening could generate nearterm duration volatility. We stay Underweight on DM USD High Yield (HY) as riskreward remains asymmetric with sector mix being unfavourable. We stay Overweight on Emerging Markets (EM) IG and continue to favour ASEAN regional champion financials, Asian quasi-sovereigns and strategic SOEs. We stay neutral on EM HY as selectivity is required given company-specific risks on the balance sheets.

As the US/Iran War drags on, Brent crude oil is not out of the woods yet in terms of supply disruption, with increasing concerns over dwindling inventory and further distillate shortage. As such, we raise our forecasts by USD 10 / bbl across the board to USD 90 / bbl in 4Q26, USD 85 / bbl in 1Q27and USD 80 / bbl in 2Q and 3Q27. As for gold, while we remain confident of gold’s long term positive outlook due to strong central bank buying, but near term, further Fed rate hikes and climb in US Treasuries yield limits any immediate recovery. As such, we forecast gold at USD 4,500 / oz in 4Q26, USD 4,800 / oz in 1Q27, USD 5,100/ oz in 2Q27 and USD 5,400 / oz in 3Q27.

The Fed tightening trajectory is expected to catalyze a meaningful recovery in US rate differentials relative to G10 peers, and we revise our USD view from bearish to constructive. Updated DXY forecasts are 102.0 in 4Q26, 102.8 in 1Q27, and 103.6 in 2Q27 and 3Q27. As for USD rates, consistent with Fed hiking cycle, we forecast 3M compounded-in-arrears SOFR at 3.96% in 4Q26, 4.21% in 1Q27, 4.32% in 2Q27 and 4.36% in 3Q27. Concurrently, we raise our 10Y UST yield forecasts to 5.30% in 4Q26, and 5.50% from 1Q27 through 3Q27. For Singapore, given broadening price pressures, our view is for MAS to tighten policy further via another “very slight” slopesteepening move (+25bps) on 14 Oct MPS, taking the S$NEER slope to 1.5% p.a. We expect 3M SORA at 1.40% in 4Q26, 1.50% in 1Q27, 1.57% in 2Q27, 1.63% in 3Q27.
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