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At the half year mark, the USD has weakened at a pace not seen in over three decades. Trump administration’s erratic trade policy, rising US fiscal risks, the de-dollarization narrative as well as the expected upcoming Fed cuts in 2H25 are key drivers weighing down on the USD.
We remain Neutral on Equities following a strong rebound given tariff-related policy uncertainties and seasonality effects. We stay Neutral on Fixed Income with an eye for buy-on-dip opportunities and recommend an average duration of 4-5 years. We remain Overweight on Alternatives as less correlated assets offer diversification benefits. We maintain Neutral on Money Market; we expect global equity markets to end higher by the end of 2025 relative to levels seen at the start of 2025.
We upgrade the US to Overweight from Neutral; this is funded out of Japan’s downgrade to Neutral from Overweight. We expect US corporate tax cuts and deregulation to provide a boost to the US equities in 2H 2025. We remain Neutral on Europe with an eye for selected thematic stocks; the deployment of EU fiscal packages presents upside risks. For Japan, we expect a stronger yen and weakening business sentiments to pose as a drag. We stay Overweight on EM Asia, favouring resilient dividend and consumer stocks as well as growth plays like China tech/AI.
For Developed Markets (DM), we stay Overweight on DM IG, favouring quality bonds from defensive sectors amid tariff uncertainty. We stay Underweight on DM USD HY as risk-reward is asymmetric; credit spread widening is a key risk to watch out for. We stay Overweight on Emerging Markets (EM) IG as we view it as a relative haven, preferring Asian financials, select Asia-focused insurers and defensive consumer names. We remain Neutral on EM HY; selectivity is key in avoiding credit pitfalls.
Existing key positive drivers for gold remain intact, including a weaker USD, on-going strong appetite for gold from China and firm net long positioning in gold in the futures market. We forecast gold price to reach USD 3,500 / oz by 4Q25. The underlying drivers for Brent crude oil have indeed changed yet again with the latest Israel-Iran ceasefire and the reversion to underlying crude oil oversupply worries. We lower Brent crude oil forecast to USD 65 / bbl for 4Q25, USD 60 / bbl for 1H26.
With the Fed rate cuts getting into view, the USD’s interest rate differentials with its Major FX peers are likely to narrow anew, exerting downward pressure on the USD. Overall, we maintain a downward trajectory in the DXY. In terms of front-end rates, we forecast the 3M compounded in arrears Sofr and Sora to decline to 3.89% and 1.80% by 4Q25 respectively. In the back end, we now see 10Y UST yield ending 2025 at 4.20% while 10Y SGS yield will ease further to 2.25% by end 2025 (from 2.35% previously).
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