Global Macro

The outlook for 2025 will be heavily shaped by the return of President Trump and his myriad of policies and their implications for US and the rest of the world. Bottom-line, the impact of Trump’s various policies is likely to be inflationary with mixed effect on growth. And of great interest and potentially the most impactful to the rest of the world is Trump’s trade tariff policies, which we assume staggered implementation of tariffs from as early as 2Q 2025 and fully completed by 1H 2026.